Strategic finance sized for early-stage brands.

Don't let a big purchase order or retail launch drain your cash. I run finance and accounting at a $200M+ omni-channel company, and I'll help you build the numbers behind your biggest decisions, like how much inventory to buy, how to fund it, and when a launch is worth it, without the cost of a full-time finance hire.

Book an intro call

Building your 2027 plan? Send me your assumptions and I'll tell you what I'd question. Or start with what to budget for in 2027.

Angel investor in De SoiBetter SourSlate Milk

What I help with

You work directly with me. No junior team, no handoffs.

Launch cost Cash on hand

Model whether you can afford a retail launch

  • Why it's hard: Retailers want a big inventory build months before you see cash, and slotting, chargebacks, and trade spend are easy to underestimate.
  • What I'll do: Build a launch P&L and cash model with total cost, payback period, and cash needed, so you can go, wait, or renegotiate.
PriceCOGSFreightFulfillMktgMargin

Find which units, orders, and channels make money

  • Why it's hard: A blended margin hides the SKUs and channels that lose money.
  • What I'll do: Build SKU-level gross margin and contribution margin by channel, with freight, fulfillment, and marketing broken out.
$0 Pay for inventory Sales come in

Plan how much inventory to buy and how to fund it

  • Why it's hard: You commit cash to MOQs and long lead times before you know what will sell.
  • What I'll do: Set order quantities and reorder timing, and build a monthly cash forecast that shows your working capital runway.
Actuals Forecast

Get your numbers and story ready for investors

  • Why it's hard: Investors spot numbers that don't tie together, fast.
  • What I'll do: Build an investor-ready model and KPI pack, and pressure-test your assumptions the way an investor would.
Free tool

IMU to AUR calculator

See how your planned markup turns into the margin you actually keep after markdowns and allowances.

Try the calculator

Who I am

Dimitri Keselman

I'm Dimitri Keselman. I've seen consumer businesses from three sides of the table: in Big 4 accounting at KPMG, in private equity and venture capital, and now running finance and accounting for two brands.

I also co-host the Consumer Rundown podcast and have made angel investments in De Soi, Better Sour, and Slate Milk, which keeps me close to what early-stage founders are dealing with. I have an MBA from UCLA Anderson.

What to expect working with me

Your interests come first

I'll recommend what's right for your business, even when that means less work for me.

Your goals set the agenda

We start with what you're trying to build, then shape the work around your stage and your cash.

Straight answers

If the numbers say wait, I'll tell you, and I'll show you why.

You keep the work

Models and reports are built so your team can understand and run them without me.

Flexible terms

Hourly, project-based, or ongoing. No retainers, no lock-in.

If you're not happy with the work, you don't pay.

Get in touch

Wrestling with a big inventory order, a retail launch decision, or a raise? Send me a question. No pitch, just advice.

info@consumerrundown.com

You can also find me on LinkedIn.

The Consumer Rundown podcast

Conversations about the people, companies, and trends changing consumer markets, from an investor and operator point of view.

Listen on Spotify ↗

Founder, operator, or investor with a story worth telling? Pitch yourself as a guest.

From markup to what you actually earn

IMU (initial markup) is the margin you build into the retail price. AUR (average unit retail) is the price you actually collect after markdowns and promotions. The gap between them is where margin goes.

Plug in your numbers and see how far apart they land.

$
%
%
%
%
%
Initial retail
0
cost ÷ (1 − IMU)
AUR (net)
0
after markdowns and allowances
Margin kept
0
per unit
Cost Margin kept Given away to markdowns and allowances
Planned margin (IMU)
0
Realized margin
0
Price given up per unit
0
Margin points lost
0

A simplified model: markdowns and allowances are applied across every unit. Real SKUs, channels, and terms shift the numbers. Want this run on your actual products? Email me. Or read how the math works.

The blog

← All posts
By Dimitri Keselman · September 2026 · 5 min read

Markup isn't margin: how IMU turns into what you actually earn

Ask five founders what markup they run and you'll get five different answers. There are two ways to calculate it, and only one matches how retailers think. Then comes the bigger problem: the markup you plan is rarely the margin you keep.

Two ways to mark up the same product

Say a unit lands in your warehouse at $25. If you add 100% on top of cost, you sell it for $50. That's cost-plus markup: a percentage of what you paid.

Retail buyers and planners look at the same $50 price differently. Half of that price is markup, so they call it a 50% IMU, or initial markup: the markup expressed as a percentage of the retail price. Same product, same price, two different numbers. If you talk to retailers, you'll want to speak in IMU.

The formula to get from cost to price:

Initial retail = Cost ÷ (1 − IMU)
IMUInitial retail on a $25 cost
50%$50.00
55%$55.56
60%$62.50
65%$71.43

Notice how quickly the price climbs. Going from 60% to 65% IMU adds almost $9 to the shelf price.

IMU is the plan. AUR is what happens.

IMU is the margin you build in on day one. AUR, or average unit retail, is what you actually collect per unit once the product hits the market: net sales dollars divided by units sold. It almost never equals your initial retail, because:

  • Some units sell on markdown or promotion.
  • Retail partners take allowances, chargebacks, and damages out of what they pay you.

Here's a simple example using that same $25 unit at a 60% IMU, so an initial retail of $62.50:

  • 40% of units sell at 30% off. Across all units, that pulls the average price down 12%.
  • Allowances and chargebacks take another 3% of sales.
  • Net AUR lands at $53.35, not $62.50.

Your cost is still $25, so you keep $28.35 per unit instead of the $37.50 you planned. Realized margin is 53.1%, not 60%. Nothing went wrong here. That's just what ordinary markdowns and allowances do to margin.

Working backward from the margin you need

Most founders pick a markup first and hope the margin follows. It works better in reverse. Decide the margin you need to keep, estimate your markdowns and allowances, and solve for the IMU:

Required IMU = 1 − (price realization × (1 − target margin))

Price realization is the share of initial retail you actually collect. In the example above it's 88% after markdowns times 97% after allowances, or about 85.4%. To keep a 55% margin:

1 − (0.854 × 0.45) = 61.6% IMU, or an initial retail of $65.08.

That 1.6-point bump in IMU looks small, but it's $2.58 more on the shelf.

The question that comes next

Will your customer pay $65.08? If the answer is no, price isn't the lever. You have three others:

  • Landed cost. Every dollar out of cost is worth more than a dollar of price, because it doesn't get marked down.
  • Markdown discipline. Buying tighter and planning promotions on purpose usually beats clearing excess later.
  • Allowances and chargebacks. These are negotiable, and worth tracking by retailer.

If you sell wholesale, there are two markups

Your retail partner runs this same math on its side. It decides what margin it needs on your product and works backward to the wholesale price it can pay. Your margin has to survive that wholesale price and the markdowns and allowances you fund on top. Founders who model only their own markup tend to find this out after the first purchase order.

Try it with your own numbers. The calculator runs exactly this math.

Open the calculator

This is a simplified model. It applies markdowns and allowances evenly across all units, and real SKUs, channels, and terms will differ. If you'd like a second set of eyes on your numbers, email me.

← All posts
By Dimitri Keselman · September 2026 · 7 min read

What to budget for in 2027: the cost assumptions consumer brands get wrong

Most early-stage budgets start with this year's numbers and add a growth rate. That works when costs move with sales. In 2027, several of your biggest costs are set to move on their own, and a few have already been announced. Here's where I'd pressure-test your plan.

1. Parcel shipping: 5.9% is the floor, not your number

FedEx announced its 2027 increase on September 18: an average of 5.9% on list rates, effective January 4. That's the fourth year in a row at the same headline, but the average hides where the increases land.

  • Light packages go up more. On FedEx Ground, the average increase for packages from 1 to 20 pounds runs between 6.1% and 6.5%, and the far zones reach 6.7%. That's the range most DTC orders fall in.
  • It comes in three waves. Base rates and surcharges change January 4. New fees for paper trade documents ($25) and paper air waybills ($5) start January 18. On February 1, FedEx reassigns zones for some U.S. ZIP code pairs, so the same package to the same place can cost more.
  • UPS hadn't announced yet when I wrote this. It has matched FedEx's 5.9% average the last few years, so that's a reasonable placeholder until it does.

What to budget: rebuild cost per order from your actual mix of weights and zones instead of adding 5.9% to this year's total. If most of your orders are light, plan on more.

2. Fuel: don't budget for relief

Diesel averaged $3.52 a gallon in January. By late September it was about $6.53. The Energy Information Administration expects distillate inventories, which include diesel, to stay tight through much of 2027.

Even if prices fall, your surcharge won't go back to where it was. UPS and FedEx reset their fuel tables higher this year, so the same diesel price now produces a bigger surcharge. I covered the details in the fuel surcharge post.

What to budget: a base case at today's surcharge levels and a high case a few points above it. Keep fuel as its own line so you can see it move.

3. Tariffs: plan on today's rates staying

The emergency tariffs are gone, but the Section 301 tariff that replaced them in July (10% or 12.5% for most countries of origin) has no expiration date. Section 232 tariffs keep expanding, and a separate 50% tariff now applies to a broad list of Canadian goods. The full rundown is in the tariff post.

What to budget: landed cost by country of origin at today's rates, plus a scenario with a few more points on your main source country. If you're expecting IEEPA refunds, record them as one-time and keep them out of your run rate.

4. Don't annualize your fourth quarter

Your 2026 fourth quarter will carry peak-season costs: carrier demand surcharges, and a proposed 6% USPS peak surcharge from October 4 through January 17 on top of its temporary 8% increase. If you build next year's freight line from a fall run rate, you'll overstate it. If you build it from the spring, you'll miss the holiday bump.

What to budget: freight by month, with peak surcharges only in the months they apply.

5. Put retailer costs on their own lines

If you sell through retail, slotting, promotions, chargebacks, and damages are some of the hardest costs to predict and the easiest to bury in a net revenue guess. Budget them by retailer and by type. That's the only way to see which accounts are worth their shelf space, and it's what an investor or lender will ask for.

6. Build the cash forecast next to the budget

A budget is a P&L. Your risk is cash. Inventory deposits, balance payments, duties paid at entry, and retailer payment terms all hit the bank on a different schedule than the P&L shows. Build a monthly cash forecast from the same assumptions and find your lowest month before you commit to the plan. That's usually the month that decides how much inventory you can really buy.

2027 budget checklist
  • Freight rebuilt by weight and zone, not last year plus 5.9%
  • Fuel surcharge as its own line, with a base and a high case
  • Landed cost by country of origin at current tariff rates
  • Tariff refunds recorded as one-time, outside the run rate
  • Peak surcharges only in the months they apply
  • Retailer deductions by account and type
  • A monthly cash forecast built from the same assumptions
  • Your lowest cash month identified, and a plan for it
  • At least one downside scenario you've actually run

None of this needs a big finance team. It needs the assumptions written down where you can check them, which is what larger brands do by default and early-stage brands often skip.

Building your 2027 plan? Send me your assumptions and I'll tell you what I'd question.

Email me

Rates and rules reflect what I could confirm as of late September 2026 and will keep changing. Check your own carrier contracts and broker for specifics.

← All posts
By Dimitri Keselman · September 2026 · 5 min read

Fuel surcharges since the war began: what's happened to your shipping costs

Diesel was under $4 a gallon before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. The latest AAA reading is about $6.53. If you ship product to customers, you've seen that on your carrier invoices, and probably by more than the diesel price alone would suggest.

What the carriers have done

UPS and FedEx set their fuel surcharges every week, using tables that turn the average diesel or jet fuel price into a percentage. Since the war began, they've pushed on two fronts.

  • They raised the tables. UPS increased its ground table on March 9 and restructured it again on April 13. At the pre-war diesel price of $3.71, the new table charges 23.75% where the old one charged 22.25%. In other words, the baseline moved up, and it stays up if fuel prices fall.
  • They added international fees. Both carriers raised international fuel surcharges in May and layered on per-pound surge fees. UPS started with $1.34 per pound from the Middle East to the U.S. in March, and by May was charging $0.32 per pound on most other international lanes.

By late August, UPS's ground fuel surcharge was above 26%, express was above 27%, and import and export surcharges were around 40%. For comparison, when diesel was $4.86 in mid-March, UPS Ground was at 25.5% and FedEx Ground at 25.0%.

Why your bill rises faster than diesel

  • Fuel is a percentage of the whole bill. It applies to base rates and to accessorial fees like residential delivery, delivery area, and additional handling. Carriers have extended fuel to more of those fees in 2026, so every increase elsewhere gets a fuel charge on top.
  • The surcharge has outrun diesel. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index found ground fuel surcharges up 26.7% year over year in the first quarter, while diesel was up about 10%.
  • Carriers are doing fine. UPS reported that fuel surcharges drove nearly 17% of its first-quarter increase in revenue per piece, even with U.S. volume down 8%.

What it does to your unit economics

Here's a simple example. A parcel has a $10 base rate and $3 of accessorial fees, so $13 before fuel.

  • At roughly 22% fuel, the surcharge is about $2.86.
  • At 26%, it's $3.38.

That's 52 cents more per parcel. At 200,000 parcels a year, it's about $104,000, before any base rate increase or peak-season surcharge. It also doesn't show up in your cost of goods. It sits in freight and fulfillment, moves weekly, and is easy to miss in a model that assumes one shipping cost per order.

What I'd do about it

  • Model freight as its own line, with fuel broken out. Refresh it monthly, not once a year.
  • Read your invoices. Find out which fees carry the fuel surcharge and whether your contract discounts it. Trade press coverage of the surcharge increases points to negotiated discounts, cutting other parcel fees, and trying other carriers as the main ways shippers limit the damage.
  • Price USPS and regional carriers. USPS went with a temporary 8% increase through January 17, 2027, rather than a carrier-style fuel table. Compare total cost per parcel, not the percentages, since they're applied to different things.
  • Plan for peak. USPS has proposed a 6% peak surcharge from October 4 through January 17, pending approval, and UPS, FedEx, and OnTrac have all published demand surcharges for the holidays.

Then look at what you charge for shipping and where your free-shipping threshold sits. Those were set when the surcharge was a lot lower.

Numbers come from public reports and will differ by contract, since discounts and tables vary by shipper. If you'd like a second set of eyes on your freight costs, email me.

← All posts
By Dimitri Keselman · Last updated September 28, 2026 · 6 min read

Tariffs, latest: what replaced the emergency tariffs, and what to do about refunds

The tariff rules for importers have changed three times this year. If your landed cost model was built in 2025, it's out of date, and you may also be owed money.

What happened, in order

  • February 20. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the emergency powers law (IEEPA) doesn't authorize tariffs. That ended the 2025 reciprocal tariffs and the country-specific emergency tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and others.
  • February 24 to July 24. A temporary 10% global surcharge under Section 122, which is limited to 150 days. An increase to the 15% legal cap was announced, so check what your entries actually paid. The Court of International Trade ruled the surcharge unlawful in May, but it expired on July 24 anyway.
  • July 24. A new Section 301 "forced labor" tariff took over for about 60 economies. It's 10% for 17 of them, including Canada, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the U.K., and 12.5% for most others, including China and Vietnam. The EU, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland get a capped rate, where the tariff is reduced by the regular duty rate so the total tops out at 10% (EU, Taiwan) or 12.5% (Japan, South Korea, Switzerland). Goods already under Section 232 are exempt. Section 301 has no expiration date.

There's more on top of that. A separate 25% Section 301 tariff hit most Brazilian goods on July 22. A 50% Section 338 tariff on a broad list of Canadian goods, including furniture, textiles, cosmetics, and sporting goods, took effect on August 22, and its scope changed again on September 15. Canada answered on September 8 with tariffs of 15%, 25%, or 50% on more than 700 U.S. products. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and autos remain in place and keep expanding.

The refund money

About $166 billion in IEEPA duties became refundable, owed to roughly 330,000 importers. Only IEEPA duties paid from February 1, 2025 through February 23, 2026 qualify. Section 122, 232, and 301 duties are not part of this process. According to a tracker built on CBP's court filings, about 73% of the pool had been certified and sent to Treasury for payment as of September 11.

  • The refund goes to the importer of record. If a supplier imported the goods and passed the tariff to you in the price, the refund likely goes to them, not you. Ask your suppliers what they're doing about it.
  • Carriers are passing refunds along. FedEx says it is distributing about $800 million automatically to customers who paid duties through it. UPS has requested a first round of $500 million and says customers should see their share one to three months after Treasury pays. DHL is filing claims and passing on what it recovers.
  • If you were the importer of record, confirm your entries are in the refund process. If a broker filed them, ask where you stand.

What to do with your numbers

  • Rebuild landed cost by country of origin. Use today's stack: the regular duty rate, plus Section 301, plus 232 or 338 where they apply. Drop any IEEPA-era assumptions.
  • Keep refunds out of your run rate. They're a one-time item. Don't let them flatter your margin, and confirm the accounting treatment with your CPA.
  • Talk to suppliers about who bears the cost. Many renegotiated during 2025. Those deals may need another look now that the tariff structure is different.
  • Run a scenario or two. Section 301 and 232 don't expire, and the administration has shown it will switch authorities quickly. Know what an extra five points on your main country of origin would do to your margin.

I'm not a customs attorney. This is a finance overview, so check specifics with your broker or trade counsel. Rules are still changing, and this reflects what I could confirm as of late September 2026. If you'd like help rebuilding your landed cost model, email me.

← Back to home
Effective September 28, 2026

Privacy Policy

This site is run by Consumer Rundown Advisory ("we"). This policy explains what information we collect when you visit the site or get in touch, and how we use it.

What we collect

  • What you send us. If you email info@consumerrundown.com, we receive your email address and whatever you include in your message.
  • Standard technical data. Like most websites, the service that hosts this site may automatically log things like your IP address, browser type, and the pages you request.

If you book a call, scheduling is handled by Calendly. It collects the name, email, and any details you enter, and shares them with us so we can hold the meeting.

The site has no accounts, sign-up forms, or payments, and we don't collect other personal information through it.

The calculator

The IMU to AUR calculator runs entirely in your browser. The numbers you enter aren't sent to us or stored anywhere.

How we use information

We use what you send us to reply to you and to discuss possible work together. We use technical data to run and secure the site. We don't sell or rent personal information.

Who we share it with

We share information only with service providers that help us run the site and handle email, and when the law requires it.

Third-party services and links

The site loads fonts from Google Fonts, which means Google receives your IP address and browser details when a page loads. Booking links open Calendly, and links to Spotify, LinkedIn, and other sites take you off this site. Their own policies apply there.

How long we keep it

We keep emails for as long as we need them to respond and to keep reasonable business records. You can ask us to delete them at any time.

Your choices

You can ask to see, correct, or delete the personal information we hold about you by emailing us. Depending on where you live, you may have additional rights under local privacy laws, and we'll honor them.

Children

This site is for business audiences and isn't directed at children.

Changes to this policy

If we change this policy, we'll post the new version here with an updated date.

Contact

Questions about privacy? Email info@consumerrundown.com.

← Back to home
Effective September 28, 2026

Terms of Service

By using this site, you agree to these terms. If you don't agree, please don't use the site.

Information only, not advice

Everything on this site, including blog posts and the calculator, is general information and education. It isn't financial, legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice, and it may not fit your situation. The calculator is a simplified model, and its results are illustrations, not predictions.

Using this site or sending an email doesn't create an advisory or client relationship. That only happens through a written agreement with Consumer Rundown Advisory.

Accuracy

We work to keep the content accurate, but it may contain errors or go out of date, especially topics that change quickly like tariffs and shipping costs. Check current rules and your own contracts before acting.

Our content

The content on this site belongs to Consumer Rundown Advisory. You're welcome to link to it and quote short excerpts with credit. Please don't copy or republish it in full without permission.

Links to other sites

This site links to third-party sites like Calendly, Spotify, and LinkedIn. We don't control them and aren't responsible for what's on them.

No warranties

The site and its content are provided "as is," without warranties of any kind, to the fullest extent the law allows.

Limit of liability

To the fullest extent the law allows, Consumer Rundown Advisory isn't liable for any loss or damage that results from your use of the site or your reliance on its content.

Changes to these terms

We may update these terms from time to time. The version posted here, with its date, is the one that applies.

Contact

Questions about these terms? Email info@consumerrundown.com.

← Back to home
Effective September 28, 2026

Cookies Policy

This page explains how this site uses cookies and similar technologies.

What cookies are

Cookies are small files that a website stores on your device to remember things like preferences or to measure visits.

How this site uses them

The pages of this site don't set cookies of their own, and we don't run analytics, advertising, or tracking tools. That's why there's no cookie banner. If that changes, we'll update this page.

Third parties

  • Google Fonts. The site loads its typefaces from Google, which receives your IP address and browser details when you load a page.
  • Calendly. Booking links open Calendly's site, which sets its own cookies under its own policy.
  • Spotify and LinkedIn. Links to these services open their own sites, which set their own cookies under their own policies.
  • Hosting. The service that hosts this site may use cookies or logs for security and operations.

Managing cookies

You can block or delete cookies in your browser settings. Doing that won't affect how this site works.

Contact

Questions? Email info@consumerrundown.com.